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Name ACTUAL Forecast Current Q Forecast Next Q Forecast Next 2 Q Forecast Next 3 Q Forecast Next Year
Stock Market (points)
 6117.07
 5957
 5875
 5794
 5714
 0
Government Bond 10Y (%)
 4.48
 4.49
 4.44
 4.39
 4.34
 0
GDP Growth Rate (%)
 2.30
 2.3
 1.9
 1.5
 2.1
 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
 2.50
 2.5
 2
 1.7
 2
 0
Unemployment Rate (%)
 4.00
 4.4
 4.5
 4.4
 4.4
 0
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand)
 143.00
 140
 180
 160
 170
 0
Inflation Rate (%)
 3.00
 2.9
 2.8
 2.5
 2.4
 0
Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.50
 0.3
 0.3
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Interest Rate (%)
 4.50
 4.5
 4.25
 4.25
 4
 0
Balance of Trade (USD Billion)
 -98.43
 -75
 -81
 -67
 -75
 0
Current Account (USD Billion)
 -310.95
 -220
 -210
 -225
 -230
 0
Business Confidence (points)
 50.90
 50
 51
 52
 53
 0
Manufacturing PMI (points)
 51.20
 51
 53
 53
 54
 0
Non Manufacturing PMI (points)
 52.80
 52
 50
 51
 55
 0
Services PMI (points)
 52.90
 52
 54
 53
 52
 0
Consumer Confidence (points)
 67.80
 68
 75
 77
 74
 0
Retail Sales MoM (%)
 -0.90
 0.3
 0.2
 -0.2
 0.4
 0
Building Permits (Thousand)
 1482.00
 1400
 1470
 1300
 1550
 0
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion)
 23530.90
 23630
 23688
 23798
 24002
 0
Gross National Product (USD Billion)
 23427.70
 23715
 23754
 23826
 23896
 0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion)
 4271.50
 4337
 4341
 4350
 4357
 0
GDP from Services (USD Billion)
 16949.30
 17117
 17137
 17237
 17288
 0
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion)
 2402.80
 2396
 2431
 2444
 2451
 0
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion)
 2635.50
 2683
 2674
 2680
 2688
 0
GDP from Transport (USD Billion)
 721.40
 731
 728
 734
 736
 0
GDP from Construction (USD Billion)
 863.70
 875
 881
 878
 881
 0
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion)
 341.40
 346
 349
 347
 348
 0
GDP from Mining (USD Billion)
 337.60
 349
 343
 343
 344
 0
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion)
 203.10
 201
 211
 207
 207
 0
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand)
 111.00
 120
 120
 170
 160
 0
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 213.00
 250
 260
 235
 220
 0
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 1850.00
 1900
 1905
 1910
 1900
 0
ADP Employment Change (Thousand)
 183.00
 100
 120
 100
 130
 0
Employed Persons (Thousand)
 163895.00
 161450
 161200
 161500
 161500
 0
Unemployed Persons (Thousand )
 6849.00
 7100
 6952
 6760
 6740
 0
Average Hourly Earnings (%)
 0.50
 0.3
 0.1
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Average Weekly Hours (Hours)
 34.10
 34.2
 34.4
 34.2
 34.2
 0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
 62.60
 62.7
 62.6
 62.5
 62.6
 0
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%)
 0.85
 1
 1.1
 1.1
 1
 0
Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
 9.00
 9.4
 9.5
 9.4
 9.4
 0
Productivity (points)
 114.48
 115
 114
 116
 117
 0
Labour Costs (points)
 121.98
 126
 126
 126
 124
 0
Job Vacancies (Thousand)
 7134.00
 7500
 7600
 7800
 7700
 0
Job Offers (Thousand)
 7600.00
 7400
 7000
 7200
 7000
 0
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons)
 49795.00
 70000
 62000
 55000
 41000
 0
Wages (USD/Hour)
 30.84
 31.2
 31.12
 31.44
 31.29
 0
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour)
 28.55
 28.74
 28.71
 28.99
 28.9
 0
Wage Growth (%)
 5.70
 4.7
 3.5
 3.5
 2
 0
Employment Cost Index (%)
 0.90
 0.4
 0.4
 0.3
 0.3
 0
U6 Unemployment Rate (%)
 7.50
 7.9
 8
 7.9
 7.9
 0
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%)
 4.10
 3.2
 3
 2.4
 2.2
 0
Full Time Employment (Thousand)
 135896.00
 133400
 133100
 133000
 133500
 0
Part Time Employment (Thousand)
 27901.00
 27900
 27500
 27800
 27600
 0
Consumer Price Index CPI (points)
 317.67
 321
 323
 323
 323
 0
Core Inflation Rate (%)
 3.30
 3
 2.8
 2.6
 2.6
 0
Core Consumer Prices (points)
 324.74
 326
 327
 329
 332
 0
GDP Deflator (points)
 126.22
 128
 128
 129
 129
 0
Producer Prices (points)
 147.72
 148
 149
 150
 151
 0
Producer Prices Change (%)
 3.50
 3.2
 3
 2.8
 2.6
 0
Export Prices (points)
 149.20
 149
 149
 148
 149
 0
Import Prices (points)
 141.50
 140
 142
 141
 142
 0
Food Inflation (%)
 2.50
 2.6
 2
 1.8
 1.6
 0
CPI seasonally adjusted (points)
 319.09
 320
 321
 322
 322
 0
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0.1
 0
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.40
 0.2
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%)
 0.40
 -0.1
 0.1
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Core Producer Prices YoY (%)
 3.60
 3.4
 3.2
 3
 3
 0
Export Prices MoM (%)
 1.30
 0.2
 0.9
 0.1
 -0.4
 0
Import Prices YoY (%)
 1.90
 -0.2
 0.1
 -0.2
 0.3
 0
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.80
 2.5
 2.4
 2.3
 2.5
 0
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.60
 2.4
 2.3
 2.2
 2.1
 0
Inflation Expectations (%)
 3.00
 3.2
 3.2
 3.3
 3.1
 0
CPI Housing Utilities (points)
 340.88
 341
 343
 345
 347
 0
CPI Transportation (points)
 270.38
 271
 272
 273
 273
 0
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion)
 21533.80
 21700
 22000
 21800
 21750
 0
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million)
 6813513.00
 6950000
 6850000
 6750000
 6700000
 0
Proxy Funds Rate (%)
 5.04
 5.04
 4.79
 4.79
 4.54
 0
Imports (USD Billion)
 364.94
 340
 341
 338
 330
 0
Exports (USD Billion)
 266.51
 265
 260
 271
 255
 0
Terms of Trade (points)
 107.85
 106
 105
 106
 105
 0
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K)
 13314.00
 13200
 13000
 12900
 12950
 0
Tourist Arrivals
 6212089.00
 5900000
 5750000
 5800000
 5580000
 0
Composite PMI (points)
 52.70
 52.5
 53.6
 54.2
 53
 0
Industrial Production (%)
 2.00
 1.2
 -0.5
 0.6
 2
 0
Manufacturing Production (%)
 1.00
 1.6
 -0.6
 -0.6
 2.5
 0
Capacity Utilization (%)
 77.80
 77.4
 77.8
 78.1
 78
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.30
 -0.1
 0.8
 -0.2
 -0.1
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%)
 -2.40
 -0.8
 3
 -1
 0.2
 0
Durable Goods Orders (%)
 -2.20
 -0.5
 2.4
 -1.2
 -0.5
 0
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.30
 -0.6
 1.4
 1.4
 -0.6
 0
Factory Orders (%)
 -0.90
 -0.3
 1.6
 -0.7
 0.2
 0
Business Inventories (%)
 -0.20
 0.1
 -0.1
 0.3
 0.2
 0
Wholesale Inventories (%)
 -0.50
 -0.2
 0.2
 -0.3
 0.1
 0
Bankruptcies (Companies)
 22762.00
 21000
 18000
 18000
 17000
 0
Corporate Profits (USD Billion)
 3128.50
 3000
 3100
 3000
 2900
 0
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points)
 102.80
 91
 90
 89
 94
 0
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 44.30
 7
 5
 8
 10
 0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points)
 0.15
 0.2
 -0.1
 -0.1
 0.3
 0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -4.00
 3
 10
 10
 12
 0
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points)
 -12.60
 6
 4
 5
 4
 0
Chicago PMI (points)
 39.50
 50
 44
 48
 50
 0
Car Production (Million Units)
 10.40
 10.8
 10.5
 10.7
 11
 0
Total Vehicle Sales (Million)
 15.60
 15.8
 15.5
 15.2
 15
 0
Car Registrations (Thousand)
 247.70
 260
 250
 265
 255
 0
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -9.00
 3
 6
 6
 6
 0
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%)
 -0.40
 0.6
 0.5
 0.5
 0.8
 0
Retail Sales YoY (%)
 4.20
 3.6
 4.2
 5
 6.1
 0
Consumer Spending (USD Billion)
 16280.10
 16253
 16287
 16387
 16606
 0
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion)
 21995.10
 21645
 21645
 21645
 23367
 0
Personal Spending (%)
 0.70
 0.3
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Personal Income (%)
 0.40
 0.3
 0.2
 0.4
 0.1
 0
Personal Savings (%)
 3.80
 4
 3.8
 4
 4.1
 0
Consumer Credit (USD Billion)
 40.85
 12
 16
 -8
 6
 0
Bank Lending Rate (%)
 7.50
 7.25
 7
 6.75
 6.5
 0
Economic Optimism Index (points)
 52.00
 46
 45
 45
 50
 0
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%)
 -0.50
 0.3
 0.1
 -0.5
 0.2
 0
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter)
 0.81
 0.8
 0.82
 0.83
 0.84
 0
Housing Starts (Thousand units)
 1499.00
 1300
 1360
 1240
 1500
 0
New Home Sales (Thousand units)
 698.00
 770
 800
 760
 750
 0
Pending Home Sales (%)
 -5.00
 2.5
 4.5
 3
 2.1
 0
Existing Home Sales (Thousand)
 4240.00
 3900
 4000
 3700
 4200
 0
Construction Spending (%)
 0.50
 1
 1.4
 0.8
 0.5
 0
Nahb Housing Market Index (points)
 47.00
 50
 51
 54
 53
 0
Mortgage Rate (%)
 6.95
 6.9
 7
 6.8
 6.9
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%)
 4.30
 3.8
 2.5
 1.8
 2.3
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points)
 332.59
 338
 344
 340
 340
 0
Crude Oil Rigs
 481.00
 488
 500
 490
 470
 0

Investment involves risk. As a general rule, you should only trade in financial products that you are familiar with and understand the risk associated with them. The risk warning described in each financial product below is not exhaustive, you should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior making any investment.

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