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Name ACTUAL Forecast Current Q Forecast Next Q Forecast Next 2 Q Forecast Next 3 Q Forecast Next Year
Stock Market (points)
 5903.33
 5725
 5648
 5572
 5498
 0
Government Bond 10Y (%)
 4.41
 4.49
 4.45
 4.42
 4.39
 0
GDP Growth Rate (%)
 -0.20
 1.5
 1
 2.1
 1.8
 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
 2.10
 2
 1.7
 2
 1.8
 0
Unemployment Rate (%)
 4.20
 4.2
 4.3
 4.4
 4.4
 0
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand)
 177.00
 100
 70
 100
 120
 0
Inflation Rate (%)
 2.30
 2.8
 3.2
 2.7
 2.6
 0
Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.3
 0.2
 0.2
 0.1
 0
Interest Rate (%)
 4.50
 4.25
 4
 4
 3.75
 0
Balance of Trade (USD Billion)
 -140.49
 -76
 -77
 -75
 -75
 0
Current Account (USD Billion)
 -303.90
 -290
 -250
 -230
 -240
 0
Business Confidence (points)
 48.70
 51
 52
 53
 51
 0
Non Manufacturing PMI (points)
 51.60
 53
 52
 53
 52
 0
Manufacturing PMI (points)
 52.30
 52
 51.5
 52.3
 52
 0
Services PMI (points)
 52.30
 54
 53
 52
 51
 0
Consumer Confidence (points)
 52.20
 67
 69
 72
 75
 0
Retail Sales MoM (%)
 0.10
 0.2
 -0.2
 0.4
 0.5
 0
Building Permits (Thousand)
 1422.00
 1470
 1400
 1550
 1500
 0
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion)
 23528.00
 23688
 23798
 24013
 23952
 0
Gross National Product (USD Billion)
 23620.90
 23754
 23826
 24093
 24046
 0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion)
 4346.50
 4341
 4350
 4351
 4425
 0
GDP from Services (USD Billion)
 17050.50
 17137
 17237
 17392
 17357
 0
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion)
 2406.80
 2431
 2444
 2455
 2450
 0
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion)
 2653.10
 2674
 2680
 2706
 2701
 0
GDP from Construction (USD Billion)
 873.80
 881
 878
 891
 890
 0
GDP from Transport (USD Billion)
 730.50
 728
 734
 745
 744
 0
GDP from Mining (USD Billion)
 343.60
 343
 343
 350
 350
 0
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion)
 350.80
 349
 347
 358
 357
 0
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion)
 203.50
 211
 207
 208
 207
 0
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand)
 167.00
 100
 80
 90
 70
 0
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 240.00
 260
 235
 220
 230
 0
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 1919.00
 1905
 1910
 1900
 1920
 0
ADP Employment Change (Thousand)
 62.00
 90
 100
 120
 180
 0
Employed Persons (Thousand)
 163944.00
 161200
 161500
 161500
 161500
 0
Unemployed Persons (Thousand )
 7165.00
 6952
 6760
 6740
 6740
 0
Average Hourly Earnings (%)
 0.20
 0.2
 0.2
 0.3
 0.2
 0
Average Weekly Hours (Hours)
 34.30
 34.4
 34.2
 34.2
 34.1
 0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
 62.60
 62.6
 62.5
 62.6
 62.7
 0
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%)
 0.98
 1.1
 1.1
 1
 1
 0
Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
 9.60
 9.6
 9.7
 9.8
 9.8
 0
Labour Costs (points)
 120.64
 127
 126
 127
 126
 0
Productivity (points)
 115.49
 116
 116
 117
 118
 0
Job Vacancies (Thousand)
 7010.00
 7000
 7150
 6900
 6850
 0
Job Offers (Thousand)
 7192.00
 7100
 7200
 7000
 6900
 0
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons)
 105441.00
 220000
 250000
 180000
 59000
 0
Wages (USD/Hour)
 31.06
 31.72
 32.02
 32.2
 32.42
 0
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour)
 28.80
 29.27
 29.52
 29.75
 30.23
 0
Wage Growth (%)
 3.26
 5.5
 5.4
 5
 4.7
 0
Employment Cost Index (%)
 0.90
 0.4
 0.3
 0.3
 0.4
 0
U6 Unemployment Rate (%)
 7.80
 7.8
 7.9
 8
 8
 0
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%)
 3.80
 3.9
 3.6
 3.5
 3.4
 0
Part Time Employment (Thousand)
 28523.00
 27500
 27800
 27600
 27600
 0
Full Time Employment (Thousand)
 135440.00
 134100
 133500
 133800
 134200
 0
Consumer Price Index CPI (points)
 320.80
 323
 325
 324
 328
 0
Core Inflation Rate (%)
 2.80
 2.9
 3
 3
 2.9
 0
Core Consumer Prices (points)
 326.43
 328
 330
 333
 335
 0
GDP Deflator (points)
 127.41
 128
 130
 130
 131
 0
Producer Prices (points)
 147.68
 149
 150
 151
 152
 0
Producer Prices Change (%)
 2.40
 3
 2.8
 2.6
 2.6
 0
Export Prices (points)
 152.80
 149
 148
 149
 149
 0
Import Prices (points)
 141.80
 146
 145
 146
 146
 0
Food Inflation (%)
 2.80
 2.7
 2.9
 2.9
 3
 0
CPI seasonally adjusted (points)
 320.32
 321
 322
 323
 323
 0
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%)
 -0.50
 0.3
 0.5
 0.3
 0.5
 0
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%)
 0.10
 0.1
 0.3
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Import Prices YoY (%)
 0.10
 2.8
 3.2
 3.3
 2.8
 0
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0.1
 0
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.10
 2.3
 2.2
 2.1
 2
 0
Core Producer Prices YoY (%)
 3.10
 3.2
 3
 3
 2.8
 0
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.50
 2.4
 2.3
 2.5
 2.3
 0
Inflation Expectations (%)
 3.60
 4.6
 4
 3.1
 3
 0
CPI Housing Utilities (points)
 344.80
 343
 348
 348
 352
 0
CPI Transportation (points)
 272.50
 273
 274
 274
 275
 0
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion)
 21862.50
 22000
 21800
 21750
 21400
 0
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million)
 6673244.00
 6710000
 6680000
 6600000
 6580000
 0
Proxy Funds Rate (%)
 4.36
 4.11
 3.86
 3.86
 3.61
 0
Exports (USD Billion)
 278.46
 265
 261
 255
 250
 0
Imports (USD Billion)
 419.00
 341
 338
 330
 325
 0
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K)
 13159.00
 13600
 13700
 13950
 13800
 0
Tourist Arrivals
 4636160.00
 5750000
 5800000
 5780000
 5910200
 0
Composite PMI (points)
 52.10
 53.6
 54.2
 53
 52
 0
Industrial Production (%)
 1.50
 1.5
 1.6
 2
 1.9
 0
Manufacturing Production (%)
 1.20
 1.6
 1.8
 2.5
 2.2
 0
Capacity Utilization (%)
 77.70
 77.8
 77.4
 77
 77.1
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%)
 -7.50
 2
 -1
 -0.2
 0.7
 0
Durable Goods Orders (%)
 -6.30
 2.4
 -1.2
 -0.5
 0.9
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.20
 0.8
 -0.2
 -0.1
 0.4
 0
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 -0.40
 1.4
 -0.5
 -0.2
 0.7
 0
Factory Orders (%)
 3.40
 1.6
 -0.7
 -0.3
 0.8
 0
Business Inventories (%)
 0.10
 -0.1
 0.3
 0.2
 0.4
 0
Wholesale Inventories (%)
 0.00
 0.2
 -0.3
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Bankruptcies (Companies)
 23107.00
 22000
 22000
 17000
 17500
 0
Corporate Profits (USD Billion)
 3191.90
 3100
 3200
 2900
 2800
 0
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points)
 95.80
 90
 91
 94
 101
 0
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -4.00
 5
 8
 10
 4
 0
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points)
 -9.20
 4
 5
 4
 -1
 0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -9.00
 2
 8
 4
 -2
 0
Chicago PMI (points)
 40.50
 44
 41
 50
 48
 0
Car Registrations (Thousand)
 250.50
 220
 190
 180
 170
 0
Total Vehicle Sales (Million)
 17.27
 15.5
 15.2
 15
 14.8
 0
Car Production (Million Units)
 10.43
 10.5
 10
 9
 8.7
 0
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -10.00
 4
 2
 6
 2
 0
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%)
 0.10
 0.2
 -0.1
 0.8
 0.6
 0
Retail Sales YoY (%)
 5.20
 2.2
 1.5
 2.1
 3
 0
Consumer Spending (USD Billion)
 16321.10
 16287
 16387
 16599
 16615
 0
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion)
 22361.70
 22245
 22080
 21800
 21700
 0
Personal Spending (%)
 0.20
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0.4
 0
Personal Income (%)
 0.80
 0.2
 0.4
 0.1
 0.2
 0
Personal Savings (%)
 3.90
 3.6
 3.4
 3.1
 3.2
 0
Consumer Credit (USD Billion)
 10.17
 16
 -8
 6
 12
 0
Bank Lending Rate (%)
 7.50
 7
 6.75
 6.5
 6.5
 0
Economic Optimism Index (points)
 47.90
 48.3
 49
 52
 53
 0
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.1
 -0.5
 0.5
 0.6
 0
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter)
 0.83
 0.82
 0.83
 0.84
 0.85
 0
Housing Starts (Thousand units)
 1361.00
 1360
 1440
 1500
 1120
 0
New Home Sales (Thousand units)
 743.00
 690
 680
 650
 660
 0
Pending Home Sales (%)
 -2.50
 4.5
 3
 2.1
 1
 0
Existing Home Sales (Thousand)
 4000.00
 4000
 3900
 4200
 4100
 0
Construction Spending (%)
 -0.50
 0.2
 0.8
 0.5
 0.4
 0
Nahb Housing Market Index (points)
 34.00
 51
 54
 53
 50
 0
Mortgage Rate (%)
 6.98
 6.65
 6.5
 6.4
 6.3
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%)
 4.10
 2.5
 1.8
 2.3
 2.6
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points)
 338.39
 344
 340
 340
 347
 0
Crude Oil Rigs
 461.00
 500
 510
 520
 530
 0

Investment involves risk. As a general rule, you should only trade in financial products that you are familiar with and understand the risk associated with them. The risk warning described in each financial product below is not exhaustive, you should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior making any investment.

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