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Name ACTUAL Forecast Current Q Forecast Next Q Forecast Next 2 Q Forecast Next 3 Q Forecast Next Year
Stock Market (points)
 6172.48
 5948
 5928
 5909
 5890
 0
Government Bond 10Y (%)
 4.29
 4.38
 4.37
 4.36
 4.35
 0
GDP Growth Rate (%)
 -0.50
 3.5
 1
 2.1
 1.8
 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
 2.00
 2
 1.7
 2
 1.8
 0
Unemployment Rate (%)
 4.20
 4.2
 4.3
 4.4
 4.4
 0
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand)
 139.00
 100
 70
 100
 120
 0
Inflation Rate (%)
 2.40
 2.5
 3.2
 2.7
 2.6
 0
Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.10
 0.2
 0.2
 0.2
 0.1
 0
Interest Rate (%)
 4.50
 4.5
 4.25
 4
 3.75
 0
Balance of Trade (USD Billion)
 -61.62
 -51
 -57
 -55
 -75
 0
Current Account (USD Billion)
 -450.17
 -315
 -250
 -230
 -240
 0
Business Confidence (points)
 48.50
 49.2
 52
 53
 51
 0
Manufacturing PMI (points)
 52.00
 52
 51.5
 52.3
 52
 0
Services PMI (points)
 53.10
 53.1
 53
 52
 51
 0
Non Manufacturing PMI (points)
 49.90
 49.7
 51
 50
 52
 0
Consumer Confidence (points)
 60.70
 60.5
 57
 53
 54
 0
Retail Sales MoM (%)
 -0.90
 0.2
 -0.2
 0.4
 0.5
 0
Building Permits (Thousand)
 1394.00
 1370
 1400
 1350
 1300
 0
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion)
 23512.70
 23688
 23798
 24013
 23936
 0
Gross National Product (USD Billion)
 23561.70
 23754
 23826
 24093
 23986
 0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion)
 4344.50
 4341
 4350
 4351
 4423
 0
GDP from Transport (USD Billion)
 727.30
 728
 734
 745
 740
 0
GDP from Construction (USD Billion)
 872.50
 881
 878
 891
 888
 0
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion)
 2406.60
 2431
 2444
 2455
 2450
 0
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion)
 2666.10
 2674
 2680
 2706
 2714
 0
GDP from Services (USD Billion)
 17036.10
 17137
 17237
 17392
 17343
 0
GDP from Mining (USD Billion)
 333.10
 343
 343
 350
 339
 0
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion)
 343.60
 349
 347
 358
 350
 0
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion)
 249.50
 248
 255
 269
 254
 0
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand)
 140.00
 100
 80
 90
 70
 0
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 236.00
 260
 265
 270
 250
 0
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 1974.00
 1970
 1990
 1990
 2020
 0
ADP Employment Change (Thousand)
 37.00
 90
 100
 120
 180
 0
Employed Persons (Thousand)
 163273.00
 163200
 162500
 162500
 161500
 0
Unemployed Persons (Thousand )
 7237.00
 7280
 7300
 7340
 7350
 0
Average Hourly Earnings (%)
 0.40
 0.2
 0.2
 0.3
 0.2
 0
Average Weekly Hours (Hours)
 34.30
 34.4
 34.2
 34.2
 34.1
 0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
 62.40
 62.3
 62.5
 62.2
 62.1
 0
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%)
 0.85
 0.9
 0.9
 1
 1
 0
Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
 9.70
 9.7
 9.8
 9.9
 9.9
 0
Productivity (points)
 115.49
 116
 116
 117
 118
 0
Labour Costs (points)
 122.24
 126
 125
 125
 127
 0
Job Vacancies (Thousand)
 7964.00
 7800
 7750
 6900
 6850
 0
Job Offers (Thousand)
 7391.00
 7100
 7200
 7000
 6900
 0
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons)
 93816.00
 110000
 150000
 180000
 90000
 0
Wages (USD/Hour)
 31.18
 31.42
 31.66
 31.9
 32.12
 0
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour)
 28.92
 28.99
 29.19
 29.46
 29.95
 0
Wage Growth (%)
 4.64
 4.5
 4.2
 4
 3.7
 0
Employment Cost Index (%)
 0.90
 0.6
 0.6
 0.5
 0.4
 0
U6 Unemployment Rate (%)
 7.80
 7.8
 7.9
 8
 8
 0
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%)
 3.90
 3.9
 3.7
 3.5
 3.4
 0
Part Time Employment (Thousand)
 28557.00
 28500
 28200
 27600
 27300
 0
Full Time Employment (Thousand)
 134840.00
 134900
 134500
 134400
 134200
 0
Consumer Price Index CPI (points)
 321.47
 322
 325
 324
 328
 0
Core Inflation Rate (%)
 2.80
 2.9
 3
 3
 2.9
 0
Core Consumer Prices (points)
 326.85
 328
 330
 333
 335
 0
GDP Deflator (points)
 127.43
 128
 130
 130
 131
 0
Producer Prices (points)
 148.07
 149
 150
 152
 153
 0
Producer Prices Change (%)
 2.60
 2.8
 3
 3.2
 3.2
 0
Export Prices (points)
 151.30
 154
 152
 151
 151
 0
Import Prices (points)
 141.80
 142
 141
 142
 143
 0
Food Inflation (%)
 2.90
 3
 3.1
 3.2
 3
 0
CPI seasonally adjusted (points)
 320.58
 321
 322
 323
 323
 0
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.30
 2.3
 2.2
 2.1
 2
 0
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.70
 2.6
 2.6
 2.5
 2.3
 0
Core Producer Prices YoY (%)
 3.00
 3.2
 3.2
 3.4
 3.5
 0
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.10
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0.1
 0
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%)
 0.10
 0.3
 0.5
 0.3
 0.5
 0
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.1
 0.3
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Import Prices YoY (%)
 0.20
 0.3
 0.1
 0.5
 0.8
 0
Inflation Expectations (%)
 3.20
 3.2
 3.1
 3.1
 3
 0
CPI Housing Utilities (points)
 345.94
 342
 348
 348
 352
 0
CPI Transportation (points)
 272.95
 273
 274
 275
 275
 0
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion)
 21942.00
 22000
 21800
 21750
 21400
 0
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million)
 6662200.00
 6650000
 6630000
 6600000
 6580000
 0
Proxy Funds Rate (%)
 4.43
 4.43
 4.18
 3.93
 3.68
 0
Imports (USD Billion)
 350.99
 341
 338
 330
 325
 0
Exports (USD Billion)
 289.37
 290
 281
 275
 250
 0
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K)
 13488.00
 13600
 13500
 13450
 13400
 0
Tourist Arrivals
 5410331.00
 5450000
 5400000
 5380000
 5310200
 0
Composite PMI (points)
 52.80
 52.8
 52
 51.3
 51
 0
Industrial Production (%)
 0.60
 1.5
 1.6
 2
 1.9
 0
Manufacturing Production (%)
 0.50
 1.1
 1.3
 1.8
 1.7
 0
Capacity Utilization (%)
 77.40
 77.4
 77.4
 77.6
 77.1
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.50
 0.8
 -0.2
 -0.1
 0.4
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%)
 15.50
 2
 -1
 -0.2
 0.7
 0
Durable Goods Orders (%)
 16.40
 2.4
 -1.2
 -0.5
 0.9
 0
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 -0.50
 1.4
 -0.5
 -0.2
 0.7
 0
Factory Orders (%)
 -3.70
 1.6
 -0.7
 -0.3
 0.8
 0
Business Inventories (%)
 0.00
 -0.1
 0.3
 0.2
 0.4
 0
Wholesale Inventories (%)
 -0.30
 0.2
 -0.3
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Bankruptcies (Companies)
 23309.00
 24000
 24300
 24000
 27500
 0
Corporate Profits (USD Billion)
 3203.60
 3100
 3200
 2900
 2800
 0
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points)
 98.80
 99
 98
 97
 99
 0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -7.00
 -7
 8
 4
 -2
 0
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -4.00
 1
 8
 6
 4
 0
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points)
 -16.00
 -6
 5
 4
 -1
 0
Chicago PMI (points)
 40.50
 44
 41
 50
 48
 0
Car Registrations (Thousand)
 252.60
 220
 210
 200
 210
 0
Car Production (Million Units)
 11.19
 10.5
 10.5
 10.4
 10.2
 0
Total Vehicle Sales (Million)
 15.65
 15.5
 15.2
 15
 14.8
 0
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 5.00
 -5
 2
 6
 2
 0
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%)
 -0.30
 0.2
 -0.1
 0.5
 0.6
 0
Retail Sales YoY (%)
 3.30
 3.6
 3.5
 3.1
 3
 0
Consumer Spending (USD Billion)
 16291.80
 16287
 16387
 16599
 16585
 0
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion)
 22454.60
 22245
 22080
 21800
 21700
 0
Personal Spending (%)
 -0.10
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0.4
 0
Personal Income (%)
 -0.40
 0.5
 0.4
 0.3
 0.4
 0
Personal Savings (%)
 4.90
 4.6
 4.4
 4.1
 3.6
 0
Consumer Credit (USD Billion)
 17.87
 16
 -8
 6
 12
 0
Bank Lending Rate (%)
 7.50
 7.5
 7.25
 7
 6.75
 0
Economic Optimism Index (points)
 49.20
 48.3
 49
 52
 53
 0
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%)
 -0.10
 0.1
 -0.5
 0.5
 0.6
 0
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter)
 0.83
 0.83
 0.83
 0.84
 0.84
 0
Housing Starts (Thousand units)
 1256.00
 1290
 1340
 1300
 1220
 0
New Home Sales (Thousand units)
 623.00
 690
 680
 650
 660
 0
Pending Home Sales (%)
 1.10
 -1.5
 0.9
 1.1
 1.7
 0
Existing Home Sales (Thousand)
 4030.00
 4000
 3900
 4200
 4100
 0
Construction Spending (%)
 -0.40
 0.1
 0.2
 0.3
 0.4
 0
Nahb Housing Market Index (points)
 32.00
 37
 38
 43
 50
 0
Mortgage Rate (%)
 6.88
 6.93
 6.8
 6.6
 6.4
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%)
 3.40
 3.8
 3.6
 3.3
 2.9
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points)
 341.48
 348
 346
 343
 348
 0
Crude Oil Rigs
 432.00
 450
 460
 450
 440
 0

Investment involves risk. As a general rule, you should only trade in financial products that you are familiar with and understand the risk associated with them. The risk warning described in each financial product below is not exhaustive, you should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior making any investment.

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