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Name ACTUAL Forecast Current Q Forecast Next Q Forecast Next 2 Q Forecast Next 3 Q Forecast Next Year
Currency
 104.04
 104
 104
 104
 104
 0
Stock Market (points)
 5580.94
 5655
 5641
 5628
 5615
 0
Government Bond 10Y (%)
 4.24
 4.27
 4.27
 4.26
 4.26
 0
GDP Growth Rate (%)
 2.40
 0.9
 1.9
 1.5
 2.1
 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
 2.50
 2.5
 2
 1.7
 2
 0
Unemployment Rate (%)
 4.10
 4.2
 4.2
 4.3
 4.4
 0
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand)
 151.00
 80
 100
 70
 100
 0
Inflation Rate (%)
 2.80
 2.5
 3
 3.2
 2.7
 0
Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.3
 0.3
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Interest Rate (%)
 4.50
 4.5
 4.25
 4
 4
 0
Balance of Trade (USD Billion)
 -131.38
 -75
 -81
 -77
 -75
 0
Current Account (USD Billion)
 -303.90
 -280
 -290
 -250
 -230
 0
Business Confidence (points)
 50.30
 50
 51
 52
 53
 0
Manufacturing PMI (points)
 49.80
 49.8
 52
 51.5
 52.3
 0
Non Manufacturing PMI (points)
 53.50
 53
 53
 52
 53
 0
Services PMI (points)
 54.30
 54.3
 54
 53
 52
 0
Consumer Confidence (points)
 57.00
 57.9
 67
 69
 72
 0
Retail Sales MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.1
 0.2
 -0.2
 0.4
 0
Building Permits (Thousand)
 1459.00
 1400
 1470
 1400
 1550
 0
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion)
 23542.30
 23630
 23688
 23798
 24013
 0
Gross National Product (USD Billion)
 23620.90
 23715
 23754
 23826
 24093
 0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion)
 4265.90
 4337
 4341
 4350
 4351
 0
GDP from Services (USD Billion)
 17050.50
 17117
 17137
 17237
 17392
 0
GDP from Construction (USD Billion)
 873.80
 875
 881
 878
 891
 0
GDP from Transport (USD Billion)
 730.50
 731
 728
 734
 745
 0
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion)
 2406.80
 2396
 2431
 2444
 2455
 0
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion)
 2653.10
 2683
 2674
 2680
 2706
 0
GDP from Mining (USD Billion)
 343.60
 349
 343
 343
 350
 0
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion)
 350.80
 346
 349
 347
 358
 0
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion)
 203.50
 201
 211
 207
 208
 0
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand)
 140.00
 130
 100
 80
 90
 0
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 224.00
 250
 260
 235
 220
 0
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 1856.00
 1900
 1905
 1910
 1900
 0
ADP Employment Change (Thousand)
 77.00
 60
 90
 100
 120
 0
Employed Persons (Thousand)
 163307.00
 161450
 161200
 161500
 161500
 0
Unemployed Persons (Thousand )
 7052.00
 7100
 6952
 6760
 6740
 0
Average Hourly Earnings (%)
 0.30
 0.3
 0.2
 0.2
 0.3
 0
Average Weekly Hours (Hours)
 34.10
 34.2
 34.4
 34.2
 34.2
 0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
 62.40
 62.4
 62.6
 62.5
 62.6
 0
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%)
 0.85
 1
 1.1
 1.1
 1
 0
Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
 9.70
 9.8
 9.8
 9.9
 10
 0
Productivity (points)
 115.66
 115
 116
 116
 117
 0
Labour Costs (points)
 120.64
 127
 127
 126
 127
 0
Job Vacancies (Thousand)
 7821.00
 7100
 7000
 7150
 6900
 0
Job Offers (Thousand)
 7740.00
 7400
 7100
 7200
 7000
 0
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons)
 172017.00
 190000
 220000
 250000
 180000
 0
Wages (USD/Hour)
 30.89
 31.47
 31.72
 32.02
 32.2
 0
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour)
 28.64
 28.99
 29.27
 29.52
 29.75
 0
Wage Growth (%)
 4.46
 5.6
 5.5
 5.4
 5
 0
Employment Cost Index (%)
 0.90
 0.4
 0.4
 0.3
 0.3
 0
U6 Unemployment Rate (%)
 8.00
 8.1
 8.1
 8.2
 8.3
 0
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%)
 4.00
 4
 3.9
 3.6
 3.5
 0
Part Time Employment (Thousand)
 28511.00
 27900
 27500
 27800
 27600
 0
Full Time Employment (Thousand)
 134676.00
 134400
 134100
 133500
 133800
 0
Consumer Price Index CPI (points)
 319.08
 320
 324
 325
 324
 0
Core Inflation Rate (%)
 3.10
 3
 2.8
 2.9
 2.8
 0
Core Consumer Prices (points)
 325.48
 326
 327
 330
 332
 0
GDP Deflator (points)
 126.26
 127
 129
 130
 130
 0
Producer Prices (points)
 147.95
 148
 149
 150
 151
 0
Producer Prices Change (%)
 3.20
 3
 3
 2.8
 2.6
 0
Export Prices (points)
 151.70
 149
 149
 148
 149
 0
Import Prices (points)
 142.50
 145
 146
 145
 146
 0
Food Inflation (%)
 2.60
 2.6
 2
 1.8
 1.6
 0
CPI seasonally adjusted (points)
 319.78
 321
 322
 322
 323
 0
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%)
 0.00
 0.2
 0.3
 0.5
 0.3
 0
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.2
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%)
 0.40
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0.1
 0
Import Prices YoY (%)
 2.00
 3.4
 2.8
 3.2
 3.3
 0
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.50
 2.4
 2.3
 2.2
 2.1
 0
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.80
 2.5
 2.4
 2.3
 2.5
 0
Core Producer Prices YoY (%)
 3.40
 3.4
 3.2
 3
 3
 0
Inflation Expectations (%)
 3.10
 3.3
 3.3
 3.2
 3.1
 0
CPI Transportation (points)
 271.04
 272
 273
 273
 274
 0
CPI Housing Utilities (points)
 342.40
 340
 344
 348
 348
 0
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion)
 21671.00
 21700
 22000
 21800
 21750
 0
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million)
 6740253.00
 6759000
 6710000
 6680000
 6600000
 0
Proxy Funds Rate (%)
 5.11
 5.11
 4.86
 4.61
 4.61
 0
Exports (USD Billion)
 269.82
 265
 260
 261
 255
 0
Imports (USD Billion)
 401.20
 340
 341
 338
 330
 0
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K)
 13491.00
 13500
 13600
 13700
 13950
 0
Tourist Arrivals
 6456562.00
 5900000
 5750000
 5800000
 5780000
 0
Composite PMI (points)
 53.50
 53.5
 53.6
 54.2
 53
 0
Industrial Production (%)
 1.40
 3.2
 1.5
 1.6
 2
 0
Manufacturing Production (%)
 0.70
 2.4
 1.6
 1.8
 2.5
 0
Capacity Utilization (%)
 78.20
 78
 77.8
 77.4
 77
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%)
 0.80
 -0.8
 2
 -1
 -0.2
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.70
 -0.1
 0.8
 -0.2
 -0.1
 0
Durable Goods Orders (%)
 0.90
 -0.5
 2.4
 -1.2
 -0.5
 0
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.20
 -0.2
 1.4
 -0.5
 -0.2
 0
Factory Orders (%)
 1.70
 -0.3
 1.6
 -0.7
 -0.3
 0
Business Inventories (%)
 0.30
 0.1
 -0.1
 0.3
 0.2
 0
Wholesale Inventories (%)
 0.30
 -0.2
 0.2
 -0.3
 0.1
 0
Bankruptcies (Companies)
 23107.00
 23000
 22000
 18000
 17000
 0
Corporate Profits (USD Billion)
 3312.00
 3000
 3100
 3200
 2900
 0
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points)
 100.70
 101
 100
 99
 94
 0
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 12.50
 11
 5
 8
 10
 0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -4.00
 5
 2
 8
 4
 0
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points)
 -20.00
 2
 4
 5
 4
 0
Chicago PMI (points)
 45.50
 43
 44
 41
 50
 0
Car Registrations (Thousand)
 219.90
 230
 220
 190
 180
 0
Car Production (Million Units)
 10.35
 10.8
 10.5
 10
 9
 0
Total Vehicle Sales (Million)
 16.00
 15.8
 15.5
 15.2
 15
 0
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 1.00
 -14
 4
 2
 6
 0
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%)
 0.30
 0.1
 0.2
 -0.1
 0.8
 0
Retail Sales YoY (%)
 3.10
 2.6
 2.2
 1.5
 2.1
 0
Consumer Spending (USD Billion)
 16273.20
 16253
 16287
 16387
 16604
 0
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion)
 22209.80
 22150
 22245
 22080
 21800
 0
Personal Spending (%)
 0.40
 0.3
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Personal Income (%)
 0.80
 0.3
 0.2
 0.4
 0.1
 0
Personal Savings (%)
 4.60
 3.8
 3.6
 3.4
 3.1
 0
Consumer Credit (USD Billion)
 18.08
 12
 16
 -8
 6
 0
Bank Lending Rate (%)
 7.50
 7.25
 7
 6.75
 6.5
 0
Economic Optimism Index (points)
 49.80
 53
 50
 51
 52
 0
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%)
 0.50
 0.3
 0.1
 -0.5
 0.5
 0
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter)
 0.82
 0.82
 0.82
 0.83
 0.83
 0
Housing Starts (Thousand units)
 1501.00
 1420
 1360
 1440
 1500
 0
New Home Sales (Thousand units)
 676.00
 670
 690
 680
 650
 0
Pending Home Sales (%)
 -3.60
 2.5
 4.5
 3
 2.1
 0
Existing Home Sales (Thousand)
 4260.00
 4100
 4000
 3900
 4200
 0
Construction Spending (%)
 -0.20
 0.3
 0.2
 0.8
 0.5
 0
Nahb Housing Market Index (points)
 39.00
 44
 51
 54
 53
 0
Mortgage Rate (%)
 6.71
 6.8
 6.65
 6.5
 6.4
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%)
 4.70
 3.8
 2.5
 1.8
 2.3
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points)
 332.56
 338
 344
 340
 340
 0
Crude Oil Rigs
 484.00
 488
 500
 510
 520
 0

Investment involves risk. As a general rule, you should only trade in financial products that you are familiar with and understand the risk associated with them. The risk warning described in each financial product below is not exhaustive, you should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior making any investment.

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