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Name ACTUAL Forecast Current Q Forecast Next Q Forecast Next 2 Q Forecast Next 3 Q Forecast Next Year
Currency
 99.38
 98.62
 97.98
 97.42
 96.85
 0
Stock Market (points)
 6940.01
 6774
 6540
 6337
 6139
 0
Government Bond 10Y (%)
 4.23
 4.12
 4.05
 3.99
 3.92
 0
GDP Growth Rate (%)
 4.30
 1.8
 1.1
 0.9
 2
 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
 2.30
 1.7
 1.9
 1.8
 1.8
 0
Unemployment Rate (%)
 4.40
 4.5
 4.6
 4.5
 4.5
 0
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand)
 50.00
 50
 70
 90
 80
 0
Inflation Rate (%)
 2.70
 2.6
 2.5
 2.4
 2.4
 0
Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.30
 0.1
 0.4
 0.5
 0.3
 0
Interest Rate (%)
 3.75
 3.75
 3.5
 3.25
 3.25
 0
Balance of Trade (USD Billion)
 -29.35
 -75
 -50
 -60
 -68
 0
Current Account (USD Billion)
 -226.40
 -240
 -220
 -250
 -270
 0
Business Confidence (points)
 47.90
 49
 51
 54
 50
 0
Manufacturing PMI (points)
 51.80
 52
 51.3
 50.7
 50
 0
Services PMI (points)
 52.50
 51
 50.4
 50.6
 50
 0
Non Manufacturing PMI (points)
 54.40
 52
 51.5
 51
 52
 0
Consumer Confidence (points)
 54.00
 54
 55
 52
 54
 0
Retail Sales MoM (%)
 0.60
 0.5
 0.3
 -0.1
 0.4
 0
Building Permits (Thousand)
 1411.00
 1380
 1420
 1360
 1380
 0
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion)
 24025.00
 23949
 24223
 24457
 24457
 0
Gross National Product (USD Billion)
 24058.90
 23968
 24226
 24492
 24492
 0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion)
 4391.70
 4407
 4464
 4471
 4471
 0
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion)
 196.00
 200
 200
 200
 200
 0
GDP from Construction (USD Billion)
 890.90
 897
 908
 907
 907
 0
GDP from Transport (USD Billion)
 744.00
 748
 758
 757
 757
 0
GDP from Mining (USD Billion)
 365.70
 349
 373
 372
 372
 0
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion)
 340.60
 361
 347
 347
 347
 0
GDP from Services (USD Billion)
 17305.60
 17448
 17634
 17617
 17617
 0
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion)
 2405.00
 2377
 2451
 2448
 2448
 0
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion)
 2603.20
 2669
 2653
 2650
 2650
 0
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand)
 37.00
 70
 80
 85
 80
 0
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 198.00
 230
 240
 220
 200
 0
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 1884.00
 1950
 1970
 2070
 1940
 0
ADP Employment Change (Thousand)
 41.00
 80
 85
 75
 90
 0
Employed Persons (Thousand)
 163992.00
 163000
 163200
 162800
 162500
 0
Unemployed Persons (Thousand )
 7503.00
 7400
 7450
 7560
 7640
 0
Average Hourly Earnings (%)
 0.30
 0.2
 0.2
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Average Weekly Hours (Hours)
 34.20
 34.1
 34.2
 34.2
 34.3
 0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
 62.40
 62.3
 62.2
 62.3
 62.4
 0
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%)
 1.14
 1.21
 1.25
 1.2
 1.2
 0
Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
 10.40
 10.5
 10.6
 10.5
 10.5
 0
Productivity (points)
 117.97
 118
 119
 117
 115
 0
Labour Costs (points)
 121.64
 129
 127
 126
 126
 0
Job Vacancies (Thousand)
 6728.00
 7050
 6950
 6890
 6800
 0
Job Offers (Thousand)
 7146.00
 7000
 6850
 6700
 6650
 0
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons)
 35553.00
 90000
 85000
 98000
 73000
 0
Wages (USD/Hour)
 31.76
 32.33
 32.51
 32.59
 32.81
 0
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour)
 29.51
 30.15
 30.1
 30.2
 30.48
 0
Wage Growth (%)
 5.01
 4.4
 4
 3.4
 3.3
 0
Employment Cost Index (%)
 0.80
 0.4
 0.4
 0.3
 0.4
 0
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%)
 3.80
 3.4
 3.4
 3.3
 3.2
 0
U6 Unemployment Rate (%)
 8.40
 8.5
 8.6
 8.5
 8.5
 0
Full Time Employment (Thousand)
 135215.00
 133800
 133200
 133000
 133900
 0
Part Time Employment (Thousand)
 28712.00
 28300
 27900
 27500
 27600
 0
Consumer Price Index CPI (points)
 324.05
 328
 331
 333
 332
 0
Core Consumer Prices (points)
 331.86
 334
 336
 339
 340
 0
Core Inflation Rate (%)
 2.60
 2.5
 2.6
 2.6
 2.5
 0
GDP Deflator (points)
 129.43
 131
 131
 133
 133
 0
Producer Prices (points)
 150.71
 153
 153
 154
 155
 0
Producer Prices Change (%)
 3.00
 3.1
 2.9
 2.8
 2.8
 0
Export Prices (points)
 153.70
 151
 150
 150
 149
 0
Import Prices (points)
 141.40
 143
 143
 143
 144
 0
Food Inflation (%)
 3.10
 3.2
 2.9
 2.8
 2.7
 0
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.5
 0.2
 0.2
 0.4
 0
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.1
 0.2
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.1
 0.3
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Import Prices YoY (%)
 0.10
 0.8
 1.4
 1.5
 1.9
 0
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.80
 2.9
 2.8
 2.7
 2.6
 0
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 2.80
 2.9
 2.8
 2.7
 2.6
 0
Core Producer Prices YoY (%)
 3.00
 2.8
 2.7
 2.5
 2.8
 0
CPI seasonally adjusted (points)
 326.03
 326
 328
 329
 330
 0
CPI Transportation (points)
 268.63
 269
 270
 271
 272
 0
Inflation Expectations (%)
 3.40
 3
 2.9
 3.1
 3
 0
CPI Housing Utilities (points)
 351.07
 352
 356
 358
 360
 0
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion)
 22322.40
 22800
 23190
 22870
 22650
 0
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million)
 6581700.00
 6580000
 6510000
 6530000
 6600000
 0
Proxy Funds Rate (%)
 3.67
 3.67
 3.42
 3.17
 3.17
 0
Imports (USD Billion)
 331.37
 325
 310
 300
 328
 0
Exports (USD Billion)
 302.02
 250
 260
 240
 260
 0
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K)
 13870.00
 13400
 13350
 13400
 13300
 0
Tourist Arrivals
 5846506.00
 5310200
 5490200
 5521000
 5580000
 0
Composite PMI (points)
 52.70
 51
 50.6
 50.5
 51
 0
Industrial Production (%)
 2.00
 1.2
 0.7
 0.6
 0.5
 0
Manufacturing Production (%)
 2.00
 0.8
 1
 1.3
 1
 0
Capacity Utilization (%)
 76.30
 76.5
 76.7
 77
 77.2
 0
Durable Goods Orders (%)
 -2.20
 0.9
 1.8
 1.1
 1.7
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.20
 0.4
 0.7
 0.6
 0.2
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%)
 -1.50
 0.7
 0.9
 1
 1.3
 0
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 -0.20
 0.7
 0.8
 0.5
 1.3
 0
Factory Orders (%)
 -1.30
 0.8
 1
 0.3
 1.4
 0
Business Inventories (%)
 0.30
 0.4
 0.6
 0.4
 0.4
 0
Wholesale Inventories (%)
 0.20
 0.3
 0.2
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Bankruptcies (Companies)
 24039.00
 24500
 25200
 25100
 25400
 0
Corporate Profits (USD Billion)
 3402.30
 3200
 3150
 3100
 2700
 0
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points)
 99.50
 99
 101
 102
 106
 0
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 12.60
 4
 3
 7
 8
 0
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points)
 7.70
 -1
 -10
 -9
 -8
 0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points)
 -0.21
 0.2
 0.1
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -7.00
 -2
 -4
 -1
 2
 0
Chicago PMI (points)
 43.50
 44
 46
 45
 49
 0
Car Registrations (Thousand)
 201.60
 210
 200
 220
 180
 0
Car Production (Million Units)
 9.67
 10.2
 10.6
 10.8
 10.8
 0
Total Vehicle Sales (Million)
 16.00
 15
 14.9
 14.7
 15
 0
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 -3.00
 2
 -3
 -1
 4
 0
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%)
 0.50
 0.6
 0.4
 -0.1
 0.4
 0
Retail Sales YoY (%)
 3.30
 2.4
 2.5
 2
 2.5
 0
Consumer Spending (USD Billion)
 16589.10
 16624
 16758
 16888
 16888
 0
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion)
 23022.40
 21700
 21600
 21500
 22100
 0
Personal Spending (%)
 0.30
 0.4
 0.2
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Personal Income (%)
 0.40
 0.4
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0
Personal Savings (%)
 4.70
 3.6
 3.5
 3.8
 3.9
 0
Consumer Credit (USD Billion)
 4.23
 3
 7
 5
 9
 0
Bank Lending Rate (%)
 6.75
 6.75
 6.5
 6.5
 6.5
 0
Economic Optimism Index (points)
 47.20
 53
 52
 50
 54
 0
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%)
 0.40
 0.6
 0.3
 -0.1
 0.4
 0
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter)
 0.76
 0.78
 0.8
 0.82
 0.84
 0
Housing Starts (Thousand units)
 1246.00
 1420
 1380
 1290
 1400
 0
New Home Sales (Thousand units)
 737.00
 660
 650
 620
 610
 0
Pending Home Sales (%)
 2.60
 1.7
 2.3
 2
 0.8
 0
Existing Home Sales (Thousand)
 4350.00
 4100
 3800
 3900
 3700
 0
Construction Spending (%)
 0.20
 0.4
 0.6
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Nahb Housing Market Index (points)
 37.00
 42
 48
 52
 51
 0
Mortgage Rate (%)
 6.18
 6.2
 6.1
 6
 6.3
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%)
 1.30
 2.9
 2.6
 2.4
 2.5
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points)
 337.33
 349
 352
 346
 346
 0
Crude Oil Rigs
 410.00
 420
 430
 435
 440
 0