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Name ACTUAL Forecast Current Q Forecast Next Q Forecast Next 2 Q Forecast Next 3 Q Forecast Next Year
Currency
 97.90
 97.83
 97.15
 96.66
 96.17
 0
Stock Market (points)
 7388.60
 7132
 6932
 6788
 6647
 0
Government Bond 10Y (%)
 4.37
 4.34
 4.26
 4.21
 4.15
 0
GDP Growth Rate (%)
 2.00
 1.1
 0.9
 2
 2.2
 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
 2.70
 1.9
 1.8
 1.6
 2.3
 0
Unemployment Rate (%)
 4.30
 4.6
 4.5
 4.5
 4.5
 0
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand)
 115.00
 70
 120
 60
 80
 0
Inflation Rate (%)
 3.30
 3.9
 4
 3.8
 3.3
 0
Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.90
 0.4
 0.5
 0.3
 0.4
 0
Interest Rate (%)
 3.75
 3.75
 3.75
 3.75
 3.75
 0
Balance of Trade (USD Billion)
 -60.31
 -70
 -60
 -58
 -50
 0
Current Account (USD Billion)
 -190.70
 -220
 -250
 -270
 -270
 0
Services PMI (points)
 51.00
 50.4
 50.6
 50
 50
 0
Business Confidence (points)
 52.70
 51
 54
 50
 48
 0
Non Manufacturing PMI (points)
 53.60
 51.5
 51
 52
 52
 0
Manufacturing PMI (points)
 54.50
 51.3
 50.7
 50
 50
 0
Consumer Confidence (points)
 48.20
 49
 52
 54
 55.9
 0
Retail Sales MoM (%)
 1.70
 0.3
 0.1
 0.1
 0.2
 0
Building Permits (Thousand)
 1363.00
 1280
 1360
 1380
 1410
 0
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion)
 24174.50
 24223
 24459
 24441
 24731
 0
Gross National Product (USD Billion)
 24173.70
 24226
 24497
 24560
 24730
 0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion)
 4472.80
 4464
 4468
 4476
 4576
 0
GDP from Services (USD Billion)
 17630.50
 17634
 17845
 17913
 18036
 0
GDP from Transport (USD Billion)
 749.30
 758
 770
 761
 767
 0
GDP from Construction (USD Billion)
 885.00
 908
 905
 899
 905
 0
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion)
 2408.60
 2451
 2478
 2447
 2464
 0
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion)
 2549.20
 2653
 2648
 2590
 2608
 0
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion)
 350.10
 347
 360
 356
 358
 0
GDP from Mining (USD Billion)
 375.20
 373
 376
 381
 384
 0
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion)
 208.80
 200
 204
 212
 214
 0
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand)
 123.00
 80
 85
 80
 80
 0
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 200.00
 240
 220
 200
 180
 0
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand)
 1766.00
 1870
 1890
 1900
 1900
 0
ADP Employment Change (Thousand)
 109.00
 65
 75
 60
 70
 0
Employed Persons (Thousand)
 162622.00
 163200
 162800
 162500
 162500
 0
Unemployed Persons (Thousand )
 7373.00
 7450
 7560
 7640
 7640
 0
Average Hourly Earnings (%)
 0.20
 0.2
 0.2
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Average Weekly Hours (Hours)
 34.30
 34.2
 34.2
 34.3
 34.3
 0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
 61.80
 61.6
 61.4
 61.5
 61.2
 0
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%)
 1.08
 1.25
 1.2
 1.2
 1.2
 0
Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
 9.50
 9.8
 9.7
 9.7
 9.7
 0
Productivity (points)
 119.58
 119
 117
 116
 117
 0
Labour Costs (points)
 122.55
 123
 123
 124
 124
 0
Job Vacancies (Thousand)
 6685.00
 6950
 6890
 6800
 6800
 0
Job Offers (Thousand)
 6866.00
 6850
 6700
 6650
 6650
 0
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons)
 83387.00
 85000
 98000
 73000
 73000
 0
Wages (USD/Hour)
 32.23
 32.56
 32.63
 32.88
 33.18
 0
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour)
 30.10
 30.15
 30.21
 30.48
 30.96
 0
Wage Growth (%)
 4.10
 4
 3.4
 3.3
 3.3
 0
Employment Cost Index (%)
 0.90
 0.4
 0.3
 0.4
 0.4
 0
U6 Unemployment Rate (%)
 8.20
 8.5
 8.4
 8.4
 8.4
 0
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%)
 3.60
 3.4
 3.3
 3.2
 3.2
 0
Full Time Employment (Thousand)
 134676.00
 133200
 133000
 133900
 133900
 0
Part Time Employment (Thousand)
 28290.00
 27900
 27500
 27600
 27600
 0
Consumer Price Index CPI (points)
 330.21
 335
 338
 336
 341
 0
Core Consumer Prices (points)
 334.17
 337
 340
 342
 344
 0
Core Inflation Rate (%)
 2.60
 2.8
 2.9
 3
 2.8
 0
GDP Deflator (points)
 130.62
 133
 135
 136
 135
 0
Producer Prices (points)
 154.01
 156
 159
 159
 160
 0
Producer Prices Change (%)
 4.00
 5.2
 5.5
 4.7
 4
 0
Export Prices (points)
 161.00
 170
 180
 175
 169
 0
Import Prices (points)
 144.60
 148
 150
 147
 148
 0
Food Inflation (%)
 2.70
 2.9
 3
 2.8
 2.6
 0
Core Producer Prices YoY (%)
 3.80
 4.2
 4.3
 3.9
 3.6
 0
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%)
 0.20
 0.3
 0.3
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%)
 0.30
 0.3
 0.2
 0.2
 0.4
 0
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%)
 0.50
 0.8
 0.5
 0.4
 0.4
 0
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 3.20
 3.2
 3.3
 2.9
 2.6
 0
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%)
 3.50
 3.7
 3.2
 2.9
 2.7
 0
Import Prices YoY (%)
 2.10
 5.4
 6.5
 3.9
 2.4
 0
CPI seasonally adjusted (points)
 330.29
 332
 333
 334
 336
 0
CPI Housing Utilities (points)
 355.10
 361
 364
 364
 367
 0
Inflation Expectations (%)
 3.60
 4.2
 3.8
 3.5
 2.9
 0
CPI Transportation (points)
 283.43
 285
 286
 287
 288
 0
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion)
 22686.00
 23190
 22870
 22650
 22650
 0
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million)
 6709505.00
 6510000
 6530000
 6600000
 6600000
 0
Proxy Funds Rate (%)
 3.83
 3.83
 3.83
 3.83
 3.83
 0
Exports (USD Billion)
 320.86
 320
 325
 340
 330
 0
Imports (USD Billion)
 381.17
 390
 385
 398
 380
 0
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K)
 13626.00
 13650
 13470
 13500
 13400
 0
Tourist Arrivals
 5412343.00
 5490200
 5521000
 5580000
 5580000
 0
Composite PMI (points)
 51.70
 50.6
 50.5
 51
 51
 0
Industrial Production (%)
 0.70
 0.7
 0.6
 0.5
 1
 0
Manufacturing Production (%)
 0.50
 1
 1.3
 1
 1.2
 0
Capacity Utilization (%)
 75.70
 76.7
 77
 77.2
 77.1
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%)
 -0.30
 0.9
 1
 1.3
 1.3
 0
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 0.90
 0.7
 0.6
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Durable Goods Orders (%)
 0.80
 1.8
 1.1
 1.7
 1.7
 0
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%)
 1.60
 0.8
 0.5
 1.3
 1.3
 0
Factory Orders (%)
 1.50
 1
 0.3
 1.4
 1.4
 0
Business Inventories (%)
 0.40
 -0.2
 0.4
 0.4
 0.4
 0
Wholesale Inventories (%)
 1.30
 0.2
 0.1
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Bankruptcies (Companies)
 24737.00
 25200
 25100
 25400
 25600
 0
Corporate Profits (USD Billion)
 3605.67
 3150
 3100
 2700
 2700
 0
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points)
 95.80
 96
 94
 92
 95
 0
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 26.70
 9
 7
 8
 11
 0
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points)
 11.00
 -5
 -9
 -8
 -8
 0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 3.00
 -4
 -1
 2
 2
 0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points)
 -0.20
 0.1
 0.1
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Chicago PMI (points)
 49.20
 50
 45
 49
 49
 0
Car Registrations (Thousand)
 228.60
 200
 220
 210
 220
 0
Car Production (Million Units)
 9.98
 10.6
 10.8
 10.8
 10.8
 0
Total Vehicle Sales (Million)
 15.90
 15.6
 14.7
 15
 15
 0
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points)
 10.00
 -3
 -1
 4
 4
 0
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%)
 1.90
 0.4
 -0.1
 0.1
 0.2
 0
Retail Sales YoY (%)
 3.97
 2.5
 2
 2.5
 2.5
 0
Consumer Spending (USD Billion)
 16731.20
 16758
 16884
 16932
 17116
 0
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion)
 23429.80
 21600
 21500
 22100
 22100
 0
Personal Spending (%)
 0.90
 0.2
 0.1
 0.1
 0.1
 0
Personal Income (%)
 0.60
 0.2
 0.1
 0.3
 0.3
 0
Personal Savings (%)
 3.60
 3.5
 3.8
 3.9
 3.9
 0
Consumer Credit (USD Billion)
 24.86
 7
 5
 9
 9
 0
Bank Lending Rate (%)
 6.75
 6.75
 6.5
 6.5
 6.5
 0
Economic Optimism Index (points)
 42.60
 52
 50
 54
 54
 0
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%)
 0.60
 0.3
 -0.1
 0.4
 0.4
 0
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter)
 1.08
 1.08
 0.92
 0.77
 0.77
 0
Housing Starts (Thousand units)
 1502.00
 1350
 1300
 1320
 1350
 0
New Home Sales (Thousand units)
 682.00
 650
 620
 610
 610
 0
Pending Home Sales (%)
 -1.10
 2.3
 2
 0.8
 0.8
 0
Existing Home Sales (Thousand)
 3980.00
 3800
 3900
 3700
 3600
 0
Construction Spending (%)
 0.60
 0.6
 0.2
 0.2
 0.2
 0
Nahb Housing Market Index (points)
 34.00
 36
 42
 43
 48
 0
Mortgage Rate (%)
 6.45
 6.5
 6.4
 6.3
 6.1
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%)
 0.90
 1.6
 1.5
 1.7
 1.9
 0
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points)
 338.15
 348
 343
 343
 345
 0
Crude Oil Rigs
 410.00
 430
 435
 440
 440
 0